Light Heavyweight predictions and title implications for UFC 88 & 89...

Title implications of UFC 88 & 89…

With UFC 88 just a few days away and UFC 89 on the not too distant horizon I figured that now is a good time to weigh in on what the title implications of the two major fights on those respective cards. I am of course referring to Liddell vs. Evans (UFC 88) and Machida vs. T. Silva (UFC 89).

Liddell vs. Evans: On paper, this looks like a serious mismatch in Liddell’s favour, as Evans represents the exact style of fighter that Liddell feasted on in the two years that he reigned over the Light Heavyweight division. That is: A fighter who’s a very good wrestler and/or has very good jujitsu, yet only mediocre striking ability. This is Evans to a “T”. Evans has remained undefeated in his MMA career because he’s a strong guy with very good wrestling(And he’s faced mostly sub-par talent), but his striking, aside from one highlight reel KO vs. Sean Salmon, leaves much to be desired. Liddell fares so well against these types of fighters because of his incredible sprawl. If Liddell does not want to go down, there’s really no way that you’re going to get him down, and keep him down long enough to do any sort of significant damage. Evans is a very good wrestler, but better wrestlers then him have tried and failed to keep the Iceman down. What this means is that all of Liddell’s fights are virtually straight kickboxing matches, and Liddell’s long reach, heavy hands, great chin, and unorthodox style make him a very difficult match up for any fighter who does not possess excellent stand up skills. The great thing about MMA is that it’s a sport where anything can happen, and that means you can’t entirely rule Evans out. That being said, just because something theoretically CAN happen, doesn’t mean you should bet on it to happen…I have to go with Chuck on this one. Let’s say: 2^nd round KO

Machida vs. T. Silva: This is a fight that a lot of hardcore fans have been screaming for for months, and either Dana actually listened to the hardcore fans for once, or it just happened to be a coincidence, I don’t really know, nor do I really care, I just want to see this fight. The reason a lot of hardcore fans have wanted to see this fight for a long time is because they want to see exactly how good each of these fighters really are. Machida has the rap of being boring fighter, because he doesn’t like to stand toe to toe and slug it out, like many other top Light Heavyweights like to do. Instead, he likes to back away, make his opponent chase him, and catch them with a number of quick counters, then quickly get out of there before his opponent realizes what’s hit him. This is a strategy that hasn’t won him a lot of fans, but it has won him a lot of fights (All of his fights in fact). What’s missing though (Aside from a lot of “Finished fights”), is a victory that’s got really great striking. Sokoudjou, who Machida defeated via submission at UFC 79 is far and away the best striker that Machida has faced thus far, and in fact, Sokoudjou was faring relatively well against Machida on his feet(At least compared to his other opponents), but Sokoudjou’s ground game is virtually non-existent, and knowing this, Machida quickly got the fight to the ground, and was able to keep it there, where he eventually locked in an arm triangle in the 2^nd round and earned his first, and thus far only, finish in the UFC. Thiago Silva though, presents a much more well rounded match up for Machida then Sokoudjou did though. Like Sokoudjou, Thiago Silva is a very aggressive and very skilled striker, but unlike Sokoudjou, Silva actually has a ground game, and excellent ground game to be exact. In fact, many folks believe Silva and Machida are 1a and 1b in the division when it comes to skill in jujitsu, so it’s unlikely that Machida will be able to simply impose his will on Silva, should the fight go to the ground, like he was able to do against Sokoudjou. On their feet, Thiago will certainly be the aggressor here, but he needs to avoid being TOO aggressive. What he needs to avoid doing is making the same mistake that most, if not all, of Machida’s opponents have made thus far, and that is just simply chasing him around the octagon. What he needs to do is attempt to cut Machida off, corner him, and force Machida to engage him on his terms, which is something Machida is not used to doing. If Thiago can do this, and get a hold of Machida, he can do a lot of damage. Machida is extremely quick in his striking, but he lacks and real semblance of knockout power in his hands, unlike Thiago, who possesses very, very heavy heads. My main concern with Thiago is his gas tank. He’s had 4 fights thus far in the UFC, 3 of them he has finished in the 1^st round. The one fight he did not finish in the 1^st round though, was against Tomasz Drwal at UFC 75. Drwal hung in there until almost the end of the 2^nd round, and by that time, Thiago looked completely exhausted, although he was still able to put Drwal away. UFC 75 will have been over a year ago once UFC 89 rolls around, so perhaps Thiago has been working on his cardio extensively since then. For his sake, I hope he has, as it could play a very big factor in this fight against Machida. All of Machida’s fights in the UFC aside from his fight with Sokoudjou have gone to a decision, knowing this, and given Machida’s fighting style, anyone who steps into the octagon with Machida has to be prepared to go 3 rounds, otherwise they could end up in some very serious trouble. As for my predictions for this fight; my heart says Thiago, but my head says Machida. You know what, I don’t want to have to root between being right and being happy, Thiago is the pick, lets say a 3^rd round TKO.

Now that I’ve gotten the predictions out of the way, it’s on to the subject featured in the title of the blog, the title implications of these two fights.

While a win over Silva in all rights should give Machida the next title shot, as he’ll then be 7-0 in the UFC, and holding wins over a number of very talented fighters in his UFC career(Nakamura, Sokoudjou, Ortiz, Silva), and even two victories over fighters earlier in his career, who went on to become UFC royalty if you will(BJ Penn and Rich Franklin), the next title shot will almost certainly go to Chuck Liddell, if he gets past Rashad Evans at UFC 88. Let’s face it, the UFC is a business first, and the main objective for business is to make money. That said, which fight do you think will draw enormous pay per view numbers, and which do you think will draw pretty average numbers? The choices are: Griffin vs. Liddell or Griffin vs. Machida? Obviously, the answer for “Which will draw enormous pay per view numbers?” is Griffin vs. Liddell, as they are arguably two of the 3 or 4 most popular fighters in the UFC today. Also there is the added storyline of Liddell “Wanting to get his belt back”. Compare that to a fight between Griffin and Machida. While Griffin is very popular and the card likely wouldn’t be a complete disaster so long as he’s in the main event, the UFC would need to absolutely stack the card with a number of other top notch fighters if it wishes to draw the same kind of numbers that a card headlined by Griffin vs. Liddell would draw. Now, if Evans defeats Liddell, then the chances for Machida getting a shot become a little more interesting. I know Dana is salivating at the thought of two former TUF winners, battling it out for the title in the deepest division in the organization, but Evans isn’t nearly the draw that Liddell is, not even remotely close. He can likely outdraw someone like Machida, but a Griffin vs. Evans card likely wouldn’t dwarf the numbers of a Griffin vs. Machida card in the way that a Griffin vs. Liddell card would, so the possibility that Dana may do the right thing and give the man that’s done the most to earn it a title shot is going to increase significantly if Evans defeats Liddell. The odd man out in all of this of course, is Thiago Silva. Regardless of the outcome of the Liddell vs. Evans fight, I just don’t see Thiago getting a title shot if he beats Machida. As I’ve already discussed, a big factor that goes into putting together these fights is what Zuffa figures the drawing power of the two fighters in the main event will be, and while Thiago is a very talented, very exciting fighter to watch, a great many fans still have no idea who he is, and most of the fans that do know him, simply know him as “That guy who knocked out Houston Alexander, right?”, and it would be very difficult for them to market a fight between Forrest Griffin, and The Guy Who Knocked Out Houston Alexander And Lyoto Machida.

So for a quick recap: If Liddell wins, the next title shot is his. If Evans and Machida both win, it could be interesting, but if I had to bet, I’d say Evans gets the shot, due to the TUF 1 Winner vs. TUF 2 Winner storyline. If Thiago Silva wins, well, tough luck Thiago, you’re going to have to beat a few more people it looks like.

Weighing in on the Best P4P Debate...

One of the most popular debates among MMA fans is the debate concerning who is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. Recently the debate has really turned into a 2 horse race between the current UFC Middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva, and former PRIDE Heavyweight champion, and current WAMMA Heavyweight champion, Fedor Emelianenko(Although you will occasionally come across a fan singing the praises of George St. Pierre or BJ Penn…Or even in some cases, Urijah Faber). So who really is in fact, the best fighter in the world? The answer unfortunately, is not a simple, or a clear cut one.

For years, Fedor was considered as the near unanimous choice for this honour among the more knowledgeable fans, but in the last 2 years Anderson Silva has left a path of destruction through the UFC’s Middleweight division that has been so impressive, and I would imagine, so terrifying to his fellow competitors, that it’s simply impossible to ignore the man they fittingly call “The Spider” any longer. Since joining the UFC in June of 2006, Silva has absolutely decimated every fighter placed in front of him. Of his 7 fights in the UFC, only 3 times have his opponents made it out of the 1^st round(Travis Lutter, Rich Franklin the 2^nd time around, and Dan Henderson), and none of those opponents were able to withstand another 5 minutes of Silva’s onslaught. It’s come to the point where he has virtually cleaned out the Middleweight division in the UFC, and has already moved up once to fight at Light Heavyweight, a much more stacked division then Middleweight, and if he’s able to continue his dominance against the handful of contenders left at Middleweight (A title defence @ UFC 90 in Chicago against the Canadian Patrick Cote looms in October), could very well move up to Light Heavyweight permanently within the next year or so.

As for Silva’s stats, his current record sits at 22 wins, with 4 losses. His most recent loss coming against the Japanese fighter Yushin Okami, at Rumble On The Rock 8 in January 2006, although Silva was never actually beaten in this fight. The loss was a result of an illegal kick by Silva. Okami was given time to recover from the kick, but stated he could not continue, and thus Silva was hit with the disqualification loss (Silva has voiced his displeasure with Okami over this, stating that he believes Okami could have continued, but he simply did not want to fight him). Aside from this, his last loss came at PRIDE Shockwave 2004, to current UFC Welterweight fighter Ryo Chonan. Chonan caught Silva by surprise and pulled off a highlight reel flying heel hook, which caused The Spider to tap midway through the 3^rd and final round. Silva is the current UFC Middleweight champion and former Cage Rage World Middleweight champion.

On the other side of this debate is a man who has become an almost mythical figure in the sport over his career, the Russian fighter; Fedor Emelianenko. Nobody has ever questioned Fedor’s ability (Outside of Dana White, but it’s become nearly impossible to take anything that man says seriously anymore), but what they have questioned is Fedor’s lack of fights against top notch competition over the last few years, which is a legitimate criticism. Over the last 3 years Fedor has fought the likes of Mark Coleman, Mark Hunt, Zuluzinho, Matt Lindland, Hong-Man Choi and Tim Sylvia, the 2-time UFC Heavyweight champion. Sylvia aside, this is not exactly a “Who’s Who” list of heavyweight contenders. Matt Lindland is a legitimate top notch fighter at his natural weight class, which is Middleweight, but it would be hard to imagine a man his size could pose a real serious challenge at Heavyweight. Mark Hunt is a former K-I Kickboxing champion with a granite chin, and as you would expect, fares very well in mixed martial arts, so long as he keeps his fights standing. As soon as Hunt is forced to leave his feet, he has proven to be completely out of his element, with all 4 of his losses coming via submission.

With Silva’s 2 year rampage through the UFC’s middleweight division, and Fedor’s relative inactivity, and when he was active, his bouts against mostly middle tier fighters and fighters fighting out of their weight class, it had become well accepted that Silva was the best pound for pound fighter in the world today. That all changed on July 19^th, 2008. At Affliction’s inaugural show, headlined by Fedor and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim Sylvia, Fedor knocked Sylvia down with a flurry of punches, got his back, and choked out the former champion, all within a time span of 36 seconds. With that victory, Fedor secured his grip on the title of the “The Best Heavyweight Fighter on the Planet”, and once again swung the doors for the Pound For Pound debate wide open.

As for his career accomplishments, Fedor’s list is unmatched in mixed martial arts today:

- 2001 RINGS Heavyweight Tournament Winner

- 2002 RINGS Open Weight Tournament Winner

- 2004 PRIDE Heavyweight Grand Prix Tournament Winner

- PRIDE Heavyweight World Champion(March 2003-PRIDE’s demise)

- WAMMA Heavyweight World Champion(July 2008-Present)

And this isn’t even counting his countless Sambo championships.

His record currently stands at 29 wins, 1 loss, and 1 no contest. The no contest coming in the finals of the 2004 PRIDE Heavyweight Grand Prix finals, against former PRIDE Heavyweight champion, and current UFC Heavyweight champion, Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira. It came as a result of an accidental head butt delivered by Fedor, which opened a cut above his own eye which, which caused a stoppage to the fight, and resulted in a no contest. Fedor would later win the rematch at PRIDE Shockwave 2004. The only blemish on his record came against Tsuyoshi Kohsaka in the semi finals of the RINGS King of Kings tournament in 2000. Having already fought Ricardo Arona earlier in the night and earning a decision victory, Fedor was next matched up against Kohsaka in the semi finals, with the winner earning the right to face Randy Couture in the finals. Only 17 seconds into the 1^st round though, Kohsaka struck Fedor with a grazing elbow that re-opened a cut above his eye that he had originally received earlier in the night against Arona. The cut was so bad that the referee had to call a stop to the contest, and Kohsaka was named the victor. He went on to lose to Couture in the finals 2 months later.

Fedor later avenged this loss nearly 5 years later at PRIDE Bushido 6, with Kohsaka being unable to continue after the 1^st round.

With all that said, who is in fact the best pound for pound fighter in the world? Honestly, I can not say. Over the span of their career’s, there is no question that Fedor has been the better fighter, but on the flip side, Silva has looked extremely impressive over the past 2 years, blowing through competition that has been for the most part, far superior to what Fedor has been fighting. Lately Fedor’s fought mainly fighters a step below the quality of Anderson’s, but has shown he can really turn it on when he has to, and over his career has almost always looked nearly unbeatable. Silva on the other hand, while incredibly dominant now, suffered some losses early on his career that proved that while he was extremely talented and extremely dangerous, he was still beatable. If you take a stance too look at their career’s as a whole, Fedor has been the best. If you take the stance of “What have you done for me lately?” Silva is the choice. Taking both into consideration though? It’s just too close to call here people. I think we’ll just all have to agree that we are currently watching 2 guys who no matter what they do from here on out, will go down in history as true legends of the sport.