Light Heavyweight predictions and title implications for UFC 88 & 89...

Title implications of UFC 88 & 89…

With UFC 88 just a few days away and UFC 89 on the not too distant horizon I figured that now is a good time to weigh in on what the title implications of the two major fights on those respective cards. I am of course referring to Liddell vs. Evans (UFC 88) and Machida vs. T. Silva (UFC 89).

Liddell vs. Evans: On paper, this looks like a serious mismatch in Liddell’s favour, as Evans represents the exact style of fighter that Liddell feasted on in the two years that he reigned over the Light Heavyweight division. That is: A fighter who’s a very good wrestler and/or has very good jujitsu, yet only mediocre striking ability. This is Evans to a “T”. Evans has remained undefeated in his MMA career because he’s a strong guy with very good wrestling(And he’s faced mostly sub-par talent), but his striking, aside from one highlight reel KO vs. Sean Salmon, leaves much to be desired. Liddell fares so well against these types of fighters because of his incredible sprawl. If Liddell does not want to go down, there’s really no way that you’re going to get him down, and keep him down long enough to do any sort of significant damage. Evans is a very good wrestler, but better wrestlers then him have tried and failed to keep the Iceman down. What this means is that all of Liddell’s fights are virtually straight kickboxing matches, and Liddell’s long reach, heavy hands, great chin, and unorthodox style make him a very difficult match up for any fighter who does not possess excellent stand up skills. The great thing about MMA is that it’s a sport where anything can happen, and that means you can’t entirely rule Evans out. That being said, just because something theoretically CAN happen, doesn’t mean you should bet on it to happen…I have to go with Chuck on this one. Let’s say: 2^nd round KO

Machida vs. T. Silva: This is a fight that a lot of hardcore fans have been screaming for for months, and either Dana actually listened to the hardcore fans for once, or it just happened to be a coincidence, I don’t really know, nor do I really care, I just want to see this fight. The reason a lot of hardcore fans have wanted to see this fight for a long time is because they want to see exactly how good each of these fighters really are. Machida has the rap of being boring fighter, because he doesn’t like to stand toe to toe and slug it out, like many other top Light Heavyweights like to do. Instead, he likes to back away, make his opponent chase him, and catch them with a number of quick counters, then quickly get out of there before his opponent realizes what’s hit him. This is a strategy that hasn’t won him a lot of fans, but it has won him a lot of fights (All of his fights in fact). What’s missing though (Aside from a lot of “Finished fights”), is a victory that’s got really great striking. Sokoudjou, who Machida defeated via submission at UFC 79 is far and away the best striker that Machida has faced thus far, and in fact, Sokoudjou was faring relatively well against Machida on his feet(At least compared to his other opponents), but Sokoudjou’s ground game is virtually non-existent, and knowing this, Machida quickly got the fight to the ground, and was able to keep it there, where he eventually locked in an arm triangle in the 2^nd round and earned his first, and thus far only, finish in the UFC. Thiago Silva though, presents a much more well rounded match up for Machida then Sokoudjou did though. Like Sokoudjou, Thiago Silva is a very aggressive and very skilled striker, but unlike Sokoudjou, Silva actually has a ground game, and excellent ground game to be exact. In fact, many folks believe Silva and Machida are 1a and 1b in the division when it comes to skill in jujitsu, so it’s unlikely that Machida will be able to simply impose his will on Silva, should the fight go to the ground, like he was able to do against Sokoudjou. On their feet, Thiago will certainly be the aggressor here, but he needs to avoid being TOO aggressive. What he needs to avoid doing is making the same mistake that most, if not all, of Machida’s opponents have made thus far, and that is just simply chasing him around the octagon. What he needs to do is attempt to cut Machida off, corner him, and force Machida to engage him on his terms, which is something Machida is not used to doing. If Thiago can do this, and get a hold of Machida, he can do a lot of damage. Machida is extremely quick in his striking, but he lacks and real semblance of knockout power in his hands, unlike Thiago, who possesses very, very heavy heads. My main concern with Thiago is his gas tank. He’s had 4 fights thus far in the UFC, 3 of them he has finished in the 1^st round. The one fight he did not finish in the 1^st round though, was against Tomasz Drwal at UFC 75. Drwal hung in there until almost the end of the 2^nd round, and by that time, Thiago looked completely exhausted, although he was still able to put Drwal away. UFC 75 will have been over a year ago once UFC 89 rolls around, so perhaps Thiago has been working on his cardio extensively since then. For his sake, I hope he has, as it could play a very big factor in this fight against Machida. All of Machida’s fights in the UFC aside from his fight with Sokoudjou have gone to a decision, knowing this, and given Machida’s fighting style, anyone who steps into the octagon with Machida has to be prepared to go 3 rounds, otherwise they could end up in some very serious trouble. As for my predictions for this fight; my heart says Thiago, but my head says Machida. You know what, I don’t want to have to root between being right and being happy, Thiago is the pick, lets say a 3^rd round TKO.

Now that I’ve gotten the predictions out of the way, it’s on to the subject featured in the title of the blog, the title implications of these two fights.

While a win over Silva in all rights should give Machida the next title shot, as he’ll then be 7-0 in the UFC, and holding wins over a number of very talented fighters in his UFC career(Nakamura, Sokoudjou, Ortiz, Silva), and even two victories over fighters earlier in his career, who went on to become UFC royalty if you will(BJ Penn and Rich Franklin), the next title shot will almost certainly go to Chuck Liddell, if he gets past Rashad Evans at UFC 88. Let’s face it, the UFC is a business first, and the main objective for business is to make money. That said, which fight do you think will draw enormous pay per view numbers, and which do you think will draw pretty average numbers? The choices are: Griffin vs. Liddell or Griffin vs. Machida? Obviously, the answer for “Which will draw enormous pay per view numbers?” is Griffin vs. Liddell, as they are arguably two of the 3 or 4 most popular fighters in the UFC today. Also there is the added storyline of Liddell “Wanting to get his belt back”. Compare that to a fight between Griffin and Machida. While Griffin is very popular and the card likely wouldn’t be a complete disaster so long as he’s in the main event, the UFC would need to absolutely stack the card with a number of other top notch fighters if it wishes to draw the same kind of numbers that a card headlined by Griffin vs. Liddell would draw. Now, if Evans defeats Liddell, then the chances for Machida getting a shot become a little more interesting. I know Dana is salivating at the thought of two former TUF winners, battling it out for the title in the deepest division in the organization, but Evans isn’t nearly the draw that Liddell is, not even remotely close. He can likely outdraw someone like Machida, but a Griffin vs. Evans card likely wouldn’t dwarf the numbers of a Griffin vs. Machida card in the way that a Griffin vs. Liddell card would, so the possibility that Dana may do the right thing and give the man that’s done the most to earn it a title shot is going to increase significantly if Evans defeats Liddell. The odd man out in all of this of course, is Thiago Silva. Regardless of the outcome of the Liddell vs. Evans fight, I just don’t see Thiago getting a title shot if he beats Machida. As I’ve already discussed, a big factor that goes into putting together these fights is what Zuffa figures the drawing power of the two fighters in the main event will be, and while Thiago is a very talented, very exciting fighter to watch, a great many fans still have no idea who he is, and most of the fans that do know him, simply know him as “That guy who knocked out Houston Alexander, right?”, and it would be very difficult for them to market a fight between Forrest Griffin, and The Guy Who Knocked Out Houston Alexander And Lyoto Machida.

So for a quick recap: If Liddell wins, the next title shot is his. If Evans and Machida both win, it could be interesting, but if I had to bet, I’d say Evans gets the shot, due to the TUF 1 Winner vs. TUF 2 Winner storyline. If Thiago Silva wins, well, tough luck Thiago, you’re going to have to beat a few more people it looks like.

Weighing in on the Best P4P Debate...

One of the most popular debates among MMA fans is the debate concerning who is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. Recently the debate has really turned into a 2 horse race between the current UFC Middleweight champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva, and former PRIDE Heavyweight champion, and current WAMMA Heavyweight champion, Fedor Emelianenko(Although you will occasionally come across a fan singing the praises of George St. Pierre or BJ Penn…Or even in some cases, Urijah Faber). So who really is in fact, the best fighter in the world? The answer unfortunately, is not a simple, or a clear cut one.

For years, Fedor was considered as the near unanimous choice for this honour among the more knowledgeable fans, but in the last 2 years Anderson Silva has left a path of destruction through the UFC’s Middleweight division that has been so impressive, and I would imagine, so terrifying to his fellow competitors, that it’s simply impossible to ignore the man they fittingly call “The Spider” any longer. Since joining the UFC in June of 2006, Silva has absolutely decimated every fighter placed in front of him. Of his 7 fights in the UFC, only 3 times have his opponents made it out of the 1^st round(Travis Lutter, Rich Franklin the 2^nd time around, and Dan Henderson), and none of those opponents were able to withstand another 5 minutes of Silva’s onslaught. It’s come to the point where he has virtually cleaned out the Middleweight division in the UFC, and has already moved up once to fight at Light Heavyweight, a much more stacked division then Middleweight, and if he’s able to continue his dominance against the handful of contenders left at Middleweight (A title defence @ UFC 90 in Chicago against the Canadian Patrick Cote looms in October), could very well move up to Light Heavyweight permanently within the next year or so.

As for Silva’s stats, his current record sits at 22 wins, with 4 losses. His most recent loss coming against the Japanese fighter Yushin Okami, at Rumble On The Rock 8 in January 2006, although Silva was never actually beaten in this fight. The loss was a result of an illegal kick by Silva. Okami was given time to recover from the kick, but stated he could not continue, and thus Silva was hit with the disqualification loss (Silva has voiced his displeasure with Okami over this, stating that he believes Okami could have continued, but he simply did not want to fight him). Aside from this, his last loss came at PRIDE Shockwave 2004, to current UFC Welterweight fighter Ryo Chonan. Chonan caught Silva by surprise and pulled off a highlight reel flying heel hook, which caused The Spider to tap midway through the 3^rd and final round. Silva is the current UFC Middleweight champion and former Cage Rage World Middleweight champion.

On the other side of this debate is a man who has become an almost mythical figure in the sport over his career, the Russian fighter; Fedor Emelianenko. Nobody has ever questioned Fedor’s ability (Outside of Dana White, but it’s become nearly impossible to take anything that man says seriously anymore), but what they have questioned is Fedor’s lack of fights against top notch competition over the last few years, which is a legitimate criticism. Over the last 3 years Fedor has fought the likes of Mark Coleman, Mark Hunt, Zuluzinho, Matt Lindland, Hong-Man Choi and Tim Sylvia, the 2-time UFC Heavyweight champion. Sylvia aside, this is not exactly a “Who’s Who” list of heavyweight contenders. Matt Lindland is a legitimate top notch fighter at his natural weight class, which is Middleweight, but it would be hard to imagine a man his size could pose a real serious challenge at Heavyweight. Mark Hunt is a former K-I Kickboxing champion with a granite chin, and as you would expect, fares very well in mixed martial arts, so long as he keeps his fights standing. As soon as Hunt is forced to leave his feet, he has proven to be completely out of his element, with all 4 of his losses coming via submission.

With Silva’s 2 year rampage through the UFC’s middleweight division, and Fedor’s relative inactivity, and when he was active, his bouts against mostly middle tier fighters and fighters fighting out of their weight class, it had become well accepted that Silva was the best pound for pound fighter in the world today. That all changed on July 19^th, 2008. At Affliction’s inaugural show, headlined by Fedor and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim Sylvia, Fedor knocked Sylvia down with a flurry of punches, got his back, and choked out the former champion, all within a time span of 36 seconds. With that victory, Fedor secured his grip on the title of the “The Best Heavyweight Fighter on the Planet”, and once again swung the doors for the Pound For Pound debate wide open.

As for his career accomplishments, Fedor’s list is unmatched in mixed martial arts today:

- 2001 RINGS Heavyweight Tournament Winner

- 2002 RINGS Open Weight Tournament Winner

- 2004 PRIDE Heavyweight Grand Prix Tournament Winner

- PRIDE Heavyweight World Champion(March 2003-PRIDE’s demise)

- WAMMA Heavyweight World Champion(July 2008-Present)

And this isn’t even counting his countless Sambo championships.

His record currently stands at 29 wins, 1 loss, and 1 no contest. The no contest coming in the finals of the 2004 PRIDE Heavyweight Grand Prix finals, against former PRIDE Heavyweight champion, and current UFC Heavyweight champion, Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira. It came as a result of an accidental head butt delivered by Fedor, which opened a cut above his own eye which, which caused a stoppage to the fight, and resulted in a no contest. Fedor would later win the rematch at PRIDE Shockwave 2004. The only blemish on his record came against Tsuyoshi Kohsaka in the semi finals of the RINGS King of Kings tournament in 2000. Having already fought Ricardo Arona earlier in the night and earning a decision victory, Fedor was next matched up against Kohsaka in the semi finals, with the winner earning the right to face Randy Couture in the finals. Only 17 seconds into the 1^st round though, Kohsaka struck Fedor with a grazing elbow that re-opened a cut above his eye that he had originally received earlier in the night against Arona. The cut was so bad that the referee had to call a stop to the contest, and Kohsaka was named the victor. He went on to lose to Couture in the finals 2 months later.

Fedor later avenged this loss nearly 5 years later at PRIDE Bushido 6, with Kohsaka being unable to continue after the 1^st round.

With all that said, who is in fact the best pound for pound fighter in the world? Honestly, I can not say. Over the span of their career’s, there is no question that Fedor has been the better fighter, but on the flip side, Silva has looked extremely impressive over the past 2 years, blowing through competition that has been for the most part, far superior to what Fedor has been fighting. Lately Fedor’s fought mainly fighters a step below the quality of Anderson’s, but has shown he can really turn it on when he has to, and over his career has almost always looked nearly unbeatable. Silva on the other hand, while incredibly dominant now, suffered some losses early on his career that proved that while he was extremely talented and extremely dangerous, he was still beatable. If you take a stance too look at their career’s as a whole, Fedor has been the best. If you take the stance of “What have you done for me lately?” Silva is the choice. Taking both into consideration though? It’s just too close to call here people. I think we’ll just all have to agree that we are currently watching 2 guys who no matter what they do from here on out, will go down in history as true legends of the sport.

Better get used to the champions we have...

You better get used to our current UFC champions, as by the looks of things, none of them are going to be going anywhere anytime soon.

The match up between Lightweight champion BJ Penn, and former champion Sean Sherk is made even more interesting by the fact that it’s arguably the last championship fight in the foreseeable future where you can honestly look at the fighters and say about the challenger: “You know, he looks like he’s got a very good chance to win this thing”. After that, if you take a look at the contenders and how they stack up against the champions in their respective weight classes, there doesn’t appear to really be any contenders that would make me think they stand a great chance.

Lightweight Division: If Penn can come out of the Sherk fight with a win, I think he’s going to rule this division for the foreseeable future. He’s still a relatively young guy (29), and really only has one hole in his game, and it’s one that if motivated, is something that can be corrected. That of course being his cardio, or lack there of. In virtually every other area, Penn ranges anywhere from very good to fantastic. Now if Sherk is able to defeat Penn at UFC 84 and reclaim his title, he also poses a number of match up problems for most other fighters in the weight class, but I believe he’ll be more beatable then a motivated BJ. Sherk has been able to build up such a fantastic record for a number of reasons. Number one being that he has arguably the best cardio in the business. The guy just keeps going and going and if anything, seems to get stronger as the fight goes on. Also, he’s got extremely short, yet powerful limbs, this makes him an extremely difficult fighter to submit, and add that to the fact that he’s got probably the best chin in the Lightweight division, you have a fighter that is extremely difficult to finish, which may have something to do how in 35 professional fights, he’s only been finished once, by current Welterweight champion George St. Pierre. This may come as a shock to a lot of people, but I believe the fighter who in the near future may very well have the best chance of defeating Sherk would be Gray Maynard. Gray is a very big Lightweight (Much like Sherk), and is also very, very strong (Again, like Sherk), and is one of the few Lightweights who likely have a stronger wrestling background then Sherk. Also another thing Maynard has going for him is the fact that he’s already got excellent cardio, but training with Xtreme Couture is going to do nothing but improve on this area which is already one of his strengths. I don’t’ believe Maynard is ready for someone like Sherk just yet, as he’s only got 6 professional fights under his belt right now, but I believe within another year or so, he could potentially pose a serious threat to Sherk. Although if Penn defeats Sherk, I believe it’s unlikely that Maynard and Penn would fight, as both are pretty close friends, so if Penn wins, disregard all of this.

Welterweight Division: At Welterweight, I really only see one man that has the potential to possibly defeat current champion George St. Pierre, and that man is Thiago Alves, but this is still a big “if”. The big thing Alves has going for him is that he’s an absolutely lethal striker, in my opinion, he’s without question the best striker at 170lbs, but he has one potential flaw, and it’s a pretty big one: His wrestling skills are questionable at best. When Alves fought Jon Fitch early in Alves’ UFC career, Fitch completely dominated that fight and was able to take Alves down easily and impose his will on him. Alves had no answers for this, and while Fitch is a good wrestler, he’s not one of the Top 3 wrestlers in the division (St. Pierre, Hughes and Koscheck are). Now, while Judo is not wrestling, it’s not entirely different, and in Alves’ most recent fight against Karo Parisyan, a fighter with excellent Judo, Alves was able to hold his own and foil a number of Parisyan’s takedown attempts, eventually landing a big knee that sent Karo to the mat and to his first stoppage loss in the UFC. Next up for Alves is a big match up against former UFC Welterweight champion Matt Hughes. This fight will be great for showing us just how much Alves’ wrestling and takedown defense has, or has not, improved. If he’s able to fend off Hughes take down attempts and is able to keep this fight standing for the most part, there’s little doubt in my mind that Alves will earn himself another (T)KO victory, it will only be a matter of time. Meanwhile, it’s widely rumoured that Jon Fitch will be the next person in line to get a crack at champion St. Pierre, but this is not a fight that looks like it is going to be overly competitive. Fitch has respectable striking and good wrestling, but he’s not on St. Pierre’s level in either category. 2 of St. Pierre’s last fights have been against fighters with stronger wrestling backgrounds then Fitch (Koscheck and Hughes), and St. Pierre dominated both of them. I really see nothing that Fitch is going to do to beat the one they call “GSP”. With all that said it’s going to come down to Alves. If he’s improved his wrestling and takedown defense enough to stuff the majority of Hughes takedown attempts, he’ll almost certainly come away with the victory and in all likihood the next crack at St. Pierre, and if he can repeat that success against St. Pierre, he very well could become the next champion. If not, we’re going to be looking at a very long title reign for George St. Pierre.

Middleweight: This should be the easiest and quickest write up for a division. There’s simply no one in Silva’s class in this division, in fact, there’s few that are even remotely close. Dan Henderson was thought to be the perfect one to beat him, and while Henderson was off to a great start in the 1st round, doing exactly what he needed to do to win the fight: Take Silva to the ground and control him, and simply grind him out, Henderson got away from this game plan in the 2^nd round, choosing instead to stand with Silva and trade strikes. This of course lend to Silva landing a big shot that Henderson never fully recovered from. I feel that the only Middleweight fighter on the planet with a great chance to beat Silva is a man who is not in the UFC and almost certainly never will be. Matt Lindland. Lindland is the best wrestler in all of MMA (An Olympic silver medalist at the 2000 summer Olympics), and anyone who’s seen Lindland fight before knows he won’t make the same mistake Henderson did, or trying to stand in there and trade shots with Silva. With that said, really the only one who can beat Silva right now, is Silva himself. Silva seems to be distracted of late with his desire to box Roy Jones Jr, something that will never happen as long as he’s a member of the UFC, as all UFC fighters are required to sign exclusive contracts stating that they are not allowed to fight in any other organization or show outside of the UFC without the UFC’s consent. If Silva continues to let himself be distracted by this, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that someone (Perhaps Okami, who seems to be next in line for a title shot), could catch Silva napping and unprepared, and hand Silva a loss in a fight he really has no business losing. Even then though, Silva at 75% is still better then virtually everyone else in this weight class.

Light Heavyweight: Outside of Penn possibly losing the Lightweight title to Sherk at UFC 84, this is title is the one I figure is the most likely to change hands in the foreseeable future. Not because current champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is a bad fighter, he’s anything but, but simply because this is arguably the most loaded weight class in the entire organization. While his upcoming fight against Forrest Griffin should not present any major problems for Jackson (Although Forrest is a tough dude, with a ton of heart, so you can never count him out entirely), things start to get real interesting after that, as there are a number of fighters who could potentially present a problem from Rampage. First up is Chuck Liddell. While I believe that Liddell should not get another shot at Rampage while Rampage has the title, due to the fact that Rampage already holds 2 victories over Liddell, and as long as Rampage holds the belt as well, has nothing to prove against Liddell, it’s almost a near certainty with if Liddell can pull of 1 or 2 more victories, he’ll get another crack at Jackson, due to the fact that Liddell is in so tight with Dana White, and that Liddell is arguably the most popular fighter in the entire organization. Liddell has been so successful because he presents a match up nightmare for most fighters…Rampage though, is not one of those fighters. Rampage is built perfectly to counter Liddell’s style and thus, Liddell should pose a huge threat to Jackson’s title reign, although we can never completely write Liddell off, as he’s one of the hardest hitting strikers in the sport, and thus can win any fight with one well timed, well placed punch. Another fighter who could be a problem for Jackson is Wanderlei Silva. While Silva has not looked like the same fighter over the past year and a half, he seems to have lost that killer instinct that made him one of the best, and most feared fighters in the world, while Jackson has gone in the other direction, and has only gotten better in the last 2 years, Silva would hold an enormous psychological edge in this fight, as he already holds 2 devastating KO victories over Jackson. Another potential problem for Jackson would be Lyoto Machida. While on paper Machida doesn’t look to be a guy that could give Jackson a lot of problems, due to the fact that he’s not overly big for a Light Heavyweight, and is not a particularly hard hitter, he presents a match up nightmare for just about everyone due to the fact that he’s got a very rare, and very unorthodox style, and is thus basically impossible to adequately prepare for. Also in the mix somewhere down the line is rising star Thiago Silva. Thiago has got unlimited potential, but at this point in time is a bit raw, and I believe needs at least another three or four fights before he’s ready for Jackson. This is someone to keep your eye on in the future though, as if he is able to continuously improve and gain experience, he could potentially be a star in this sport for a long time. Also, we can’t forgot about current Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. There’s been talk about Silva moving up to the Light Heavyweight division, as there is little left for him to accomplish at Middleweight. While Jackson would hold a considerable size advantage over Silva, Silva presents precisely the style of fighter that has given Jackson fits in the past: He’s a highly aggressive, highly skilled muay Thai fighter. These type of fighters have accounted for Jackson’s last 3 losses, all of which by (T) KO (2 to Wanderlei Silva, 1 to Mauricio Rua), and Anderson is arguably more skilled then either of those guys, so this is another potentially dangerous fight for the man they call “Rampage”.

Heavyweight: The situation in this weight class is very similar to that of the Middleweight division, in that you have one fighter (The champion), who is head and shoulders above the rest of the division. The difference though is that at Middleweight there’s maybe one other fighter in the world who could potentially defeat a 100% focused Anderson Silva, there’s a number of other fighters who could give Heavyweight champ Antônio Rogério Nogueira some trouble…Except none of them are currently in the UFC(Fedor, Sylvia, Couture, Barnett, Filipovic). Also, another reason why no one else will be getting their hands on Nogueira’s belt anytime in the near future is that, well, he won’t be defending it anytime in the near future. The UFC recently announced that the coaches for the next season of The Ultimate Fighter will be Nogueira, and former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir (The show will feature Lightweights and Light Heavyweights). The title will then be on the line at the New Years show at the end of December (For those keeping track at home, that’s 7 months away). Also, this really doesn’t look like a fight that should cause Nogueira a lot of problems. Mir has been successful in the UFC because he’s got very good Brazilian ju-jitsu, which is a skill that all but a handful of heavyweights are sorely lacking…Problem for Mir is that the champion and his opponent, has better ju-jitsu then him and has arguably the best in all of MMA. Unless the UFC can do something to lure some of the top heavyweights to their organization, Nogueira is likely going to hold this championship until he retires, as there is no one at Heavyweight on the UFC’s roster right now that is even the least bit inspiring.

In conclusion, I really hope you folks like the current crop of champions we have in the UFC right now, as in all likelihood they will all remain champions for the foreseeable future.

How UFC 84 can sort out the Light Heavyweight mess...

With UFC 84 about a week and a half away, we could conceivably see the mess that is the Light Heavyweight division all tidied up, for the near future anyway. I’ll give you a quick recap of how the division got to where it is, before I get into how UFC 84 could hopefully clear things up.

For about the last 8 months the Light Heavyweight division, which is arguably the deepest on the UFC’s roster, has been in shambles in terms of deserving title contenders. Standing at the top of the division is the current champion, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, who after his victory over PRIDE Middleweight (Middleweight in PRIDE was the same weight limit as Light Heavyweight in the UFC) champion Dan Henderson at UFC 75, seemed destined to defend his title next against the man who handed him his last loss, the Brazilian fighter Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. Rua defeated Rampage at PRIDE Total Elimination 2005, in what was arguably the most lopsided defeat of Jackson’s career. Rua was set to make his UFC debut at the next pay per view event, UFC 76, and this is where things start to get messy. At UFC 76, Rua came into his fight with Forrest Griffin, having suffered a ruptured ACL in training, and thus was woefully under prepared for a fight that would last until the last few seconds of round 3, where Forrest was able to sink in a rear naked choke on a completely exhausted Rua. The general consensus was that if Rua lost to Forrest, the next man in line for a title shot would be former champion Chuck Liddell, the man Rampage defeated in order to become the champion at UFC 71, despite the fact that Liddell was currently 0-2 versus Rampage, and not often do you see a fighter get another crack at a fighter that holds 2 victories over him already. This plan however, also fell apart at UFC 76 as in the main event, Chuck Liddell was defeated by Keith Jardine, who himself was coming off a brutal KO loss against the relatively unknown Houston Alexander.

Not long after UFC 76 it was announced that Quinton Jackson and Forrest Griffin would be featured as the coaches on the next season of the reality show The Ultimate Fighter, and afterwards would fight for the title. This seemed a bit ridiculous as while Griffin’s victory over Rua, on paper, looked impressive, it’s already been noted that Rua was no where near 100% for that fight, also, 2 fights before the showdown against Rua at UFC 76, Griffin had been knocked out by Keith Jardine in the 1^st round at UFC 66, and also 2 fights before that, had suffered a split decision loss to Tito Ortiz at UFC 59. Griffin getting a title shot seemed a bit absurd at the time, but in hindsight it has given the division some more time to sort itself out, as UFC 79 would prove that it needed.

The general consensus among fight fans was that after Griffin was defeated by Jackson following the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 7(Which in all likelihood will be the result), Wanderlei Silva, the man who held the PRIDE Middleweight Title for nearly 6 years and holds 2 brutal KO victories over Jackson, would be the next in line for a shot. Silva was set to make his UFC debut at UFC 79 against former champion Chuck Liddell, who was now on a 2 fight losing streak and was generally considered to be washed up at this point. What happened though was Liddell clearly came prepared for this fight, and delivered his best performance in years as he defeated Silva via decision.

Since UFC 79, Chuck Liddell signed on to fight Mauricio Rua at UFC 85, only to have Rua withdraw due to another knee injury. Rua was replaced with Rashad Evans who was originally scheduled to fight Thiago Silva at UFC 84, but pulled out of that fight to get a crack at Liddell. Not long after Evans was announced as Rua’s replacement though, Liddell suffered a serious hamstring injury and was also forced to withdraw from the card. Liddell was then replaced with James Irvin, who will fight Rashad Evans at UFC 85.

All of this essentially brings us up to today, or to be more exact, UFC 84 on May 24^th. While the main event on the UFC 84 card is a Lightweight Championship showdown between BJ Penn and Sean Sherk, the Light Heavyweight division is featured most prominently on the card with the 4 other fights on the main card being Light Heavyweight fights(Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva, Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes and Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic) , and the best fight on the preliminary card also being a Light Heavyweight fight(Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura). This all sets up nicely for the Light Heavyweight division hopefully, finally working itself out.

First up is the showdown between Jardine and Silva. A win here by Jardine should all but assure that The Dean of Mean(Arguably one of the worst nicknames in the sport) will be granted the next title shot at the winner of Jackson vs. Griffin(Almost certainly Jackson), as Jardine in his last 4 fights will have defeated the man currently fighting for the title(Griffin), the man who held the title for 2 years(Liddell) and the man who twice knocked out the man currently with the title(Silva), and while his brutal KO at the hands of Alexander deserves mention, after Alexander’s last 2 performances in the octagon, combined with how well Jardine has fought recently, that loss can be caulked up in the “fluke” category. Now if Silva wins, it potentially creates a couple of problems: First off, it’s been widely rumoured that this will be Silva’s last fight in the UFC at 205lbs. After this bout against Jardine Silva will be dropping to 185lbs, and potentially setting up a Super Fight against the current Middleweight champion, Anderson Silva. Then again, while this as been widely rumoured, it has not been confirmed to my knowledge. Secondly, if Silva does win, how can you justify giving a man who’s lost 3 of his last 4 fights(To Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, Dan Henderson and Chuck Liddell, respectively) a title shot, even if he does hold 2 victories over the current champ? This is why if Silva wins, the results from the other fights on the card are crucial.

Next up is Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz. This is Tito’s last fight on his UFC contract and he’s already stated that he will never resign with the UFC as long as Dana White is the president, which will likely be the case for the foreseeable future, so I won’t waste any time on any Tito related championship implications if he were to win. Instead I’ll focus on Machida, who along with Thiago Silva are the only 2 fighters near the top of the heap who have completely unblemished records (Both fighters are currently 12-0). Problem with Machida is, while he holds some impressive victories in his career, arguably his 2 biggest victories, at least in the eyes of the casual UFC fan, have come over fighters in lower weight classes then himself (A decision victory over current Lightweight champ BJ Penn and a KO victory over former Middleweight champ Rich Franklin). He holds 2 impressive victories to the hardcore fans(A decision victory of Nakamura at UFC 76, and a submission victory over Sokoudjou at UFC 79), but while these victories make Machida arguably the most deserving candidate in the eyes of the hardcore fans, the UFC isn’t in the business of catering to the hardcore fans, they’re in the business of catering to the casual fans, the fans who make up the large majority of the fan base, and among those fans, Lyoto is still a relatively unknown fighter). This is where things get really interesting for Machida, as this will be his first fight in the UFC against a big mainstream star, Tito Ortiz. If Machida can defeat Ortiz (Especially if he can defeat him in dominant fashion), it will greatly help with his name recognition among the casual fans. Unfortunately though, Lyoto is not an overly marketable fighter, due to the fact that he doesn’t speak English(He’s Brazilian, and thus speaks Portuguese), and the large majority of his fights go to a decision, meaning he’s generally not viewed as being overly “exciting”, which is why I don’t think a victory over Ortiz will be enough to land him a title shot, BUT, a win over Ortiz, and a win over a Wanderlei Silva(This is what I was talking about when I mentioned the outcome of the other fights on the card being crucial) who’s coming off a win over Keith Jardine, could probably be enough to land him a title shot. And of course if Silva were to win the match up with Machida, then consecutive wins over Jardine and Machida, along with already possessing 2 wins over Jackson should be enough to justify a title shot for Silva.

The nightmare scenario that could play out here would be for Silva to beat Jardine, Machida to lose to Ortiz, and for Silva to then drop to 185lbs, if all that were to happen, we could very well be right back where we started from, and given the way this division has played out lately, I wouldn’t bet against it.